Nigeria could record an estimated 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 if an exceptionally strong El Niño phenomenon occurs, according to researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
The researchers projected that a strong El Niño, described as a “super El Niño,” could lead to approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide over six months, with Nigeria potentially recording the highest number of fatalities among countries globally.
Nigeria is expected to account for nearly half of the projected 66,800 heat-related deaths across four African countries identified as particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures.
The researchers warned that governments in affected countries, including Nigeria, need to strengthen healthcare systems and introduce measures to protect residents from dangerous heat conditions.
Their recommendations include improving hospital preparedness, establishing cooling centres, providing early warnings about extreme temperatures and protecting workers who spend long hours outdoors.
Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad Among Most Vulnerable
According to the projections, Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad are expected to experience the highest heat-related mortality burdens in Africa.
Sudan could record approximately 17,500 additional deaths, while Niger may experience 10,000 and Chad about 8,000 during the projected period.
Nigeria, which has an estimated population of 237.5 million, is projected to face the highest heat-related mortality burden worldwide under the super El Niño scenario.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal, affecting weather patterns in different parts of the world.
A super El Niño refers to an exceptionally strong episode of the phenomenon.
The researchers attributed the vulnerability of Nigeria and other Sahelian countries to rising temperatures, widespread poverty, unreliable electricity supplies and limited access to cooling facilities.
They noted that more than 60 per cent of Nigeria’s population was estimated to be living below the national poverty line in 2025.
Frequent power outages could also make it difficult for households to cope with extreme temperatures, even when they have electricity connections.
The researchers explained that people living in poverty were generally more likely to suffer heat-related deaths than those in wealthier areas experiencing similar temperatures because they had fewer resources to protect themselves.
Europe Records Estimated 50,000 Heat-Related Deaths
Meanwhile, Europe experienced an estimated 50,000 heat-related deaths during the summer of 2026, according to two studies published in the journal Nature Health.
Europe is described as the world’s fastest-warming continent, and the summer of 2026 was reportedly its hottest on record, with several countries experiencing new temperature highs amid repeated heatwaves.
The estimated fatalities represent the highest number of excess heat-related deaths recorded in Europe this century, exceeding the approximately 29,000 deaths estimated for the summer of 2022.
Italy, France, Spain, Germany and the United Kingdom were among the countries that recorded the highest estimated numbers of excess deaths linked to the hot conditions.
The estimates were modelled by scientists from Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and the universities of Copenhagen, Venice and Bern.
Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy and one of the authors of the studies, said the summer of 2026 was likely to have been the worst on record for heat-related mortality across much of Europe.
The findings highlight growing concerns about the impact of extreme temperatures on public health, particularly in countries where poverty, inadequate healthcare facilities and limited access to cooling systems could leave vulnerable populations at greater risk.
